Explore how open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools and techniques can be leveraged to boost enterprise and government agency defenses against the growing risks posed by geopolitical cyber threats.

Globalization has long been promoted as a hallmark of the modern world, where economies, cultures and populations steadily integrate into a singular global village. However, the recent barrage of political, economic and environmental shocks has greatly impacted global structures and relationships, ultimately leading to a surge in geopolitical tensions worldwide.

For international enterprises, these heightened geopolitical frictions not only impact daily operations, but also accelerate the threat of devastating cyberattacks, such as ransomware and advanced persistent threats (APTs). Beginning with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and interference in elections, nation-state actors are increasingly concealing their malicious agendas behind geopolitical narratives, weaponizing the internet to execute their malicious objectives.

By exploiting the power of OSINT, organizations can proactively identify, analyze and mitigate emerging threats, ensuring business continuity and safeguarding critical assets in the face of escalating global tensions.

What is the strategic role of OSINT in geopolitical assessment?

OSINT is a powerful and cost-effective intelligence-gathering framework for conducting sophisticated geopolitical assessments. Here are its critical applications in this field.

Tracking political events

OSINT can be used to monitor and track political movements and social protests by aggregating data from social media posts, hashtags and news media coverage. For instance, monitoring social media posts can reveal underlying tensions or public support for particular policies and identify emerging trends and shifting alliances. For example, by monitoring social media platforms, especially TikTok, many journalists were able to predict there was an incoming invasion of Ukraine.

Here are some tools to search social media platforms:

  • Social Searcher - Searches user-generated content such as posts, news, videos and images based on user search keywords on major social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, Instagram and Flickr
  • Google Alert – Receive email alerts whenever a specific word or phrase matching your search terms appears online
  • Google Trends – A free Google service that provides a sample of Google (Web, Image, News, Shopping)  and YouTube search data to analyze the popularity of a topic or query in addition to revealing the intent behind their queries

To perform a detailed analysis of major social media platforms, check out these in-depth guides for conducting OSINT on: Discord, Instagram, Twitter (X), Mastodon, Reddit and Facebook

On the other hand, news aggregator websites can be precious for OSINT analysts conducting geopolitical assessments. They help them consolidate news from diverse sources and provide real-time updates. These platforms offer a comprehensive overview of global events, trends, crisis points and emerging issues, allowing OSINT analysts to assess their implications and identify misinformation and propaganda proactively. Here are the most prominent news source aggregators:

Analyzing public sentiment

Sentiment analysis, a technique that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to identify the emotional tone of text, is another powerful tool for OSINT analysts conducting geopolitical assessments. Sentiment analysis helps OSINT gatherers determine the following:

  • Assess public morale in a specific region or country. This reveals public support for particular policies and can give insight into potential political instability 
  • Identify emerging issues that may reveal geopolitical threats
  • Identify propaganda campaigns spread across various social media platforms
  • Assess public reactions to specific geopolitical events such as elections or armed conflicts
  • Analyzing public sentiment can reveal future trends in a particular region, country or even across the world

Here are some tools to perform sentiment analysis on a large scale:

Monitoring economic and trade dynamics through OSINT

A vital element of geopolitical intelligence gathering involves closely tracking global economic trends and trade flows. OSINT provides a versatile framework for inspecting these crucial regional stability and diplomatic relations indicators. Here are some tools that can be used for geopolitical intelligence gathering, particularly in tracking economic trends and trade flows worldwide:

  • Trading Economics – A huge database containing 20 million economic indicators for 196 countries in addition to historical data, charts, news and forecasts for them
  • World Bank Open Data – Provides free and open access to global development data
  • International Monterey Fund – Provides global economic trends, exchange rates and other economic indicators
  • The Conference Board – Delivers strategic intelligence through specialized analysis centers, encompassing economic performance metrics, environmental sustainability initiatives, corporate philanthropy impact, social responsibility frameworks and educational development paths
  • UN Comtrade Database - The UN Comtrade database compiles detailed global trade statistics by product and trading partner, offering annual and monthly data from around 200 countries—covering over 99% of global merchandise trade. It's a valuable resource for governments, researchers and businesses alike
  • Statista - Provides statistics and facts on global economic indicators
  • Deloitte Insights – Provides weekly global economic update

Another valuable OSINT technique for monitoring global trade dynamics is the detailed international analysis of shipping data and logistics networks. For instance, by tracking vessel movements, analyzing cargo manifests and monitoring port activity, OSINT analysts can gain vital insights into patterns that reveal early economic shifts or geopolitical maneuvers. For example, an important increase in a country's imports of essential goods, such as oil, gas, wheat, sugar or pharmaceuticals, might signal stockpiling efforts, often driven by predictions of shortages, economic stress, anticipated climate change or military conflict preparation. In the same way, monitoring export restrictions or bottlenecks at key ports can help detect the effects of trade sanctions on a particular country, which could be strategically leveraged to forecast economic instability or shifts in trade alliances.

There is a plethora of online services for analyzing shipping and logistics data:

  • MarineTraffic – Track vessel movements across the globe. The website can also observe shipping trends, vessel types, cargo details, and port congestion. Such information can reveal congested marine routes that signal shifts in trade routes
map shows massive vessel traffic crossing the Cape of Good Hope 
Figure 1 - Marine Traffic live map shows massive vessel traffic crossing the Cape of Good Hope after increasing attacks against vessels crossing near Al Yemen by Houthi movement
  • Vesselfinder – Another free AIS vessel tracking website. It displays real-time ship positions and marine traffic detected by the global AIS network

Interested in learning more about maritime OSINT? Check out these tips from OSINT expert Rae Baker!

OSINT sources like financial news portals, business reports and corporate announcements provide granular, on-the-ground intelligence on regional economic health and problems. For instance, by tracking fluctuations in commodity prices, national currency exchange rates and stock market performance, OSINT analysts can detect early warning signs of economic crises that may escalate geopolitical tensions. Here are some resources for finding real-time financial data and news:

  • Bloomberg Terminal – Provides access to financial news, data, unique insight and trading tools
  • Eikon – An open-technology solution for financial markets professionals, providing access to industry-leading data, insights and exclusive and trusted news
  • Yahoo Finance - A rich resource of financial market data and tools
  • Marketstack – Provides real-time stock data for any ticker down to the minute, request intraday quotes or searches 30+ years of accurate historical market data

The OSINT analysis of trade flows and sanctions impact provides organizations with a comprehensive understanding of the complex intersection between geopolitics and the global marketplace. This intelligence enables organizations and government agencies to make informed decisions regarding their proactive risk mitigation strategies.

Many examples exist of leveraging OSINT to monitor trade flows and trade with sanctioned entities worldwide. For instance, TankerTrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports crude oil shipments focusing on particular geographical areas, has issued many reports giving detailed information about the scale and operations of the Russian shadow fleet used to circumvent sanctions on exporting Russian oil. The project depends on public data and other acquired from commercial entities, such as commercial satellite imagery, to track Russian and Iranian oil sales worldwide.

Here are some OSINT tools and services for strategic trade and sanctions intelligence:

  • Trade Map – Provides monthly, quarterly and yearly trade statistics for international business development in addition to  trade import & export values, volumes, growth rates and market shares (see Figure 2)
TradeMap 
Figure 2 - TradeMap
  • Observatory of Economic Complexity – Provides detailed global trade data covering over 500 subnational regions, 5,000 products, and thousands of companies. Using this service, we can explore trade patterns, compare economic performance and generate reports quickly using clear visualizations
  • SWIFT Sanctions Screening – A commercial service for scanning your incoming and outgoing financial transactions against different sanctions lists
  • OFAC Sanctions List Search – Search all sanctions lists administered by the OFAC USA
  • EU Sanctions Map – List of entities sanctioned by the EU countries
  • United Nations Security Council Consolidated List – entities sanctioned by the United Nations  
  • OpenCorporates – Find information about commercial companies located in more than 140+ jurisdictions
  • Sayari Graph – This is a commercial risk intelligence platform that combines global corporate and supply chain data, complex entity networks and intuitive risk identification

OSINT's role in geopolitical assessment has become an indispensable intelligence framework that enables organizations to understand complex global trade dynamics. By analyzing digital signals acquired from diverse internet sources, economic indicators and emerging threats, OSINT provides decision-makers with comprehensive insights to formulate risk mitigation strategies in an increasingly changing global environment.

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